Pandemic legacy Pandemic worries are so 2020 Must It Be

Pandemic legacy Pandemic worries are so 2020. Must It Be

Pandemic worries are so 2020. Must It Be?

At least investors haven’t had to worry about pandemics amid all the worries this year about inflation, interest rates, and wars. However, perhaps they ought to: The dangers are still present.

The first exhibit is the precarious state of the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, or PEPFAR. George W. Bush launched this American program in 2003, and it is said to have prevented the deaths of roughly 25 million people worldwide. Previously, Congress had supported its bipartisan renewal every five years.

Pandemic legacy

But this year, resistance spearheaded by Rep. Chris Smith, who alleges PEPFAR has been co-opted to advance abortion rights, has thwarted the initiative.

Markets should be concerned about this. According to a recent analysis posted on the research portal KFF, calculates that the growth in the gross domestic product per capita in PEPFAR beneficiary countries between 2004 and 2018 would have been a significant 2.1 percentage points slower in the absence of the initiative. Stated differently, PEPFAR nearly doubled growth.

Pandemic legacy

The International Monetary Fund estimates that through 2024, the loss in economic output brought on by COVID-19 will reach $14 trillion. Poorer regions have been hit hardest, including Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa, as evidenced by the downgrade in GDP forecasts compared to 2019.

However, the World Bank and World Health Organization-sponsored Global Preparedness Monitoring Board issued a warning in October stating that the monitoring systems that were unable to alert people to the effects of COVID-19 had not improved.

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Pandemic legacy

This is in addition to the risks associated with hepatitis, malaria, tuberculosis, and the increase in noncommunicable diseases.

 

The new Pandemic Treaty that WHO members have proposed is meant to be the cornerstone of a new preventive approach. May is when the draft agreement is due. Nonetheless, growing disparities in the methods of funding research and Medical technologies, such as medications, vaccines, and diagnostics, may indicate that it is insignificant.

A new Pandemic Fund was approved by the World Bank last year, but it has only raised less than $2 billion out of the estimated $10 billion to $130 billion that is actually needed. According to a McKinsey analysis from 2021, middle-income and low-income nations must account for 65% of spending.

 

A further obstacle to increased readiness is that, according to University of Washington researchers, 47% of health care costs in low- and lower-middle-income areas are paid for out of pocket, which is twice the global average. To prevent illness, the poorest nations rely heavily on foreign assistance as well. All of this makes them more financially vulnerable.

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Pandemic legacy

The reaction to AIDS has demonstrated the direction to go. Because branded medications are more expensive, increasing competition is essential. among producers of generics.

For instance, in the late 1990s and early 2000s, Brazil and Thailand made investments in domestic research and antiretroviral drug production, which increased demand for Indian companies’ active ingredients, which are the primary component used in drug manufacturing.

The so-called first-line generic HIV therapies—those that are usually administered first—were significantly less expensive as a result of the ensuing economies of scale. On the other hand, because they are still marketed in less competitive and smaller markets, third-line generic medications that are used when other treatments fail continue to be costly.

Investors ought to encourage developing countries to strive for similar achievements, despite the fact that volatility in bond markets has made the required investments more difficult to undertake. Weaker countries seem especially vulnerable, including Zambia, Ecuador, and Angola.

Pandemic legacy

Naturally, it benefits developing markets when pharmaceutical companies loosen their patent protection. Drug costs have also decreased thanks to the Medicines Patent Pool, an international program launched in 2010 that combines voluntary licensing with patent pooling.

In a similar vein, the World Trade Organization has periodically waived intellectual property agreements for reasons related to health since 2001. Developing countries have utilized this flexibility to great effect. Nevertheless, the WTO didn’t expand its scope to include Covid-19 vaccinations until June 2022, and it is currently discussing whether to include medications and diagnostics.

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The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine’s Eduard J. Beck, an epidemiologist, highlights data collection as another area that needs funding. “Many nations are aware of their total health spending, but they lack detailed information about the costs and benefits of medical technologies they are purchasing,” the speaker stated.

Pandemic legacy

Red flags include inadequate funding, slow responses, and little information—and not just for health officials. Investors who own assets in developing nations or who are just worried about potential pandemics need to keep an eye on things on their own.

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